5 AAC 92.125. Predation Control Implementation Plans

Predation control implementation plans are established in the following areas:

(1) a Unit 19(D)-East wolf predation control area is established and consists of those portions of the Kuskokwim River drainage within Unit 19(D)-East upstream from the Selatna River, but excluding the Selatna River drainage and the Black River drainage; notwithstanding any other provision in this title, the commissioner or the commissioner's designee may conduct a wolf population reduction or wolf population regulation program in the Unit 19(D)-East wolf predation control area consistent with the following control objectives, constraints, and requirements:

(A) the objective of the program is, between the years 2004 and 2009, to reverse the decline in the moose population and initiate an increase toward the intensive management moose population objective of 6,000 - 8,000 moose with a sustainable annual harvest of 400 - 600 moose;

(B) when the commissioner or the commissioner's designee conducts a wolf population reduction or wolf population regulation program, the program must be conducted in the following manner to achieve the objectives in (A) of this paragraph:

(i) for up to five years beginning July 1, 2004, the commissioner may reduce the wolf population in Unit 19(D)-East; however, the commissioner may not reduce the wolf population within the Unit 19(D)-East wolf predation control area to fewer than 20 wolves; and

(ii) the commissioner must reduce the wolf population in an efficient manner, by any means, but as safely and humanely as practical;

(C) hunting and trapping of wolves by the public in Unit 19(D)-East during the term of the program may occur as provided in the hunting and trapping regulations set out elsewhere in this title, including the use of motorized vehicles as provided for in 5 AAC 92.080; however, if the wolf population is reduced to 20 wolves, the commissioner must stop all taking of wolves until the wolf population increases;

(D) annually, the department shall to the extent practicable, provide to the Board of Game at the board's spring board meeting, a report of program activities conducted during the preceding 12 months, including implementation activities, the status of moose, caribou, black bear, brown bear, and wolf populations, and recommendations for changes, if necessary, to achieve the plan's objective;

(E) justification for the program, and wildlife population and human-use information, is as follows:

(i) the Board of Game determined the moose population in Unit 19(D)-East is important for providing high levels of human consumptive use; the board established objectives for population size and annual sustained harvest of moose in Unit 19(D)-East consistent with multiple use and principles of sound conservation and management of habitat and all wildlife species in the area;

(ii) the moose population in Unit 19(D)-East contains migratory and lowland resident components; migratory moose move from the uplands of the Alaska Range foothills in adjacent Unit 19(C) to lowland areas in spring before calving; these moose remain in riparian and wetland areas of Unit 19(D)-East through midsummer, then return to the foothills in late summer; they are largely unavailable to local hunters during open hunting seasons;

(iii) within the 5,200 square mile portion of Unit 19(D)-East that was surveyed for wolves in 2001, the resident moose population is estimated to be 1,219 - 2,195 moose based on scientific aerial surveys in 2003;

(iv) moose hunting seasons and bag limits are more restrictive than in the mid-1970s; currently, the season is open for 25 days in September in the portion upstream of the drainage of the Selatna and Black Rivers, except the Takotna River drainage upstream of the village of Takotna and 20 days in September for the portion upstream of the village of Takotna with a bag limit of 1 bull for resident hunters only by registration permit; aircraft may not be used for hunting moose in most of the area, so few moose are taken by hunters residing outside the area; harvest by subsistence hunters in Unit 19(D)-East is estimated to be about 80-100 moose per year; this is less than half of the desired harvest level;

(v) habitat quality in Unit 19(D)-East is not currently a primary limiting factor; wildfires are common and fire suppression efforts are limited; moose population in Unit 19(D)-East (8,513 square miles) is currently estimated at 2,716 moose based on extrapolations from the smaller 5,240 square mile moose study area; all indications are that habitat in this area is easily capable of sustaining three to four times the present level of the moose population; further efforts to increase moose populations through habitat manipulation would be of little value;

(vi) black and brown bear densities have not been estimated, but are thought to be low to moderate; the impacts of bear predation on adult moose are thought to be low to moderate, but the impacts of black bear predation on calf moose is know to be a significant component of mortality;

(vii) the wolf population in Unit 19(D)-East was estimated using an intensive aerial survey in February 2001; the population in a 5,200 square mile portion of Unit 19(D)-East was estimated at a minimum of 103 wolves; that is approximately 1.9 wolves per 100 square miles;

(viii) available moose and wolf population estimates suggest the current moose-to-wolf ratio is approximately 12:1 to 21:1; if the wolf population has increased since the 2001 survey, moose to wolf ratios could be lower; with limited numbers of caribou and other prey in Unit 19(D)-East, wolf predation rates on resident moose are high; moose can be expected to persist at low densities with little expectation of increase unless moose calf and adult survival increase;

(ix) several severe winters in the late 1980s and early 1990s have contributed to the moose population decline by reducing forage availability and increasing vulnerability of moose to wolves;

(x) hunting and trapping of wolves in the area have not exceeded sustainable levels; the department can continue trapper education efforts in local villages, but previous trapper education programs in the area had no measurable effect on wolf harvest; economic factors are a major obstacle to reducing wolf numbers through hunting and trapping; if the wolf population is to be reduced to achieve prey population objectives, measures beyond normal hunting and trapping will have to be employed;

(2) a Unit 20(A) wolf predation control area is established and consists of Unit 20(A), except for the following areas: the Fort Wainwright and Fort Greely Military Reservations, Clear Air Force Station, and that portion of Unit 20(A) south and west of a line beginning at the east end of the Moody Bridge where it intersects with the Unit 20(A) boundary, then north along the boundary of Unit 20(A) to a point exactly one mile east of the Parks Highway, then south and parallel to the Parks Highway at a distance of one mile east, to the southern boundary of Unit 20(A); in accordance with 5 AAC 92.110, the commissioner or the commissioner's designee may conduct a wolf population reduction or wolf population regulation program in the Unit 20(A) wolf predation control area consistent with the following program objectives, constraints, and requirements:

(A) the objective of the program is to reverse the decline of the Delta caribou herd and increase the mid-summer caribou population to 5,000 - 7,000 with a sustainable annual harvest of 300 - 700 caribou by the year 2009;

(B) if the commissioner or the commissioner's designee conducts a wolf population reduction or wolf population regulation program, the program must be conducted in the following manner to achieve the objectives in (A) of this paragraph:

(i) for a five-year period beginning July 1, 2004, the commissioner may reduce the wolf population in Unit 20(A); however, the commissioner may not reduce the late-winter wolf population within the Unit 20(A) wolf predation control area to fewer than 75 wolves; and

(ii) the commissioner must reduce the wolf population in an efficient manner, but as safely and humanely as practical;

(C) hunting and trapping of wolves by the public in Unit 20(A) during the term of the program may occur as provided in the hunting and trapping regulations set out elsewhere in this title, including the use of motorized vehicles as provided in 5 AAC 92.080;

(D) annually, the department, to the extent practicable, shall provide to the Board of Game, at the board's spring board meeting, a report of program activities conducted during the preceding 12 months, including implementation activities, the status of prey and predator populations, and recommendations for changes, if necessary, to achieve the plan's objective;

(E) justification for the program, and wildlife population and human-use information, is as follows:

(i) consumptive use of caribou, moose, and sheep has been a priority human use of wildlife in Unit 20(A) for decades; human demand for harvest of these species remains high and is reflected in management goals for maximizing opportunity to hunt moose, caribou, and sheep in this area; management objectives for population size and annual harvest were established to provide for conservation and annual sustained yields of the Delta caribou herd, consistent with multiple use and principles of sound conservation, and management of habitat and all wildlife species in the area;

(ii) ecological relationships and predator-prey dynamics in Unit 20(A) are among the best understood in Alaska; extensive field studies and decades of experience indicate that management of predation and harvests by humans is necessary to achieve the management objectives for Unit 20(A);

(iii) a temporary reduction in wolf numbers is necessary to enhance survival of prey, reverse population declines, and achieve management objectives in Unit 20(A); although wolf predation may not be a significant factor initiating declines in prey abundance or productivity, once started by any other factor such as weather, declines in prey may be accelerated and deepened by wolf predation; no reasonable alternative to a temporary reduction in wolf numbers exists if the management objectives are to be achieved in a timely manner;

(iv) wolf population reduction was implemented in Unit 20(A) from spring 1976 through 1982 and October 1993 through November 1994; immediately following the initial wolf reduction, caribou and moose survival increased significantly; populations of both species grew through the 1980s, reaching peaks in 1989 of about 11,000 each from lows of about 1,800 and 2,800, respectively, in 1976; although sheep numbers also increased during this period, the direct effects of wolf reduction on sheep survival are not clearly known; following the end of control in spring 1982, the wolf population recovered to 220 - 295 by fall 1992 due to an expanded prey base during the 1980s; following the second wolf reduction, caribou calf survival and numbers increased; following the end of control, the wolf population recovered from an estimated 175 wolves in 1994 to 244 by 1998;

(v) during the mid-1980s, the number of caribou and moose harvested by hunters was within the management objectives outlined for that period; during the late 1980s and early 1990s, caribou harvests declined concurrent with the caribou population decline that was caused by reduced productivity and survival; the caribou season was shortened by emergency order in February 1991 and remained closed through 1995; hunting by drawing permit (up to 200 permits) for bull caribou only was resumed in 1996;

(vi) in spite of eliminating hunting, the Delta caribou herd continued to decline; the results of a June 1993 census indicated a population of 3,700 - 4,000 caribou in the Delta herd; the major causes for this decline were adverse weather and increased wolf predation; of these two factors, only wolf predation can be effectively managed; the results of a June 2003 census indicated a population of 2,500 - 2,600 caribou in the Delta herd; unless wolf predation is reduced, it is expected that the Delta caribou herd will decline to 1,500 - 2,000 caribou by 2009;

(vii) based on past experience in Unit 20(A) and elsewhere, aerial shooting by department personnel from helicopters is the most humane, selective, and effective method to reduce wolf numbers and is authorized;

(3) a Unit 20(D) wolf predation control area is established and consists of Unit 20(D), except for the portions of Unit 20(D) within the Ft. Greely Military Reservation and within the Fortymile Nonlethal Predation Control Area described in (4) of this section; in accordance with 5 AAC 92.110, the commissioner or the commissioner's designee may conduct a wolf population reduction or wolf population regulation program in the Unit 20(D) wolf predation control area consistent with the following program objectives, methods, constraints, and requirements:

(A) the objectives for the program are as follows:

(i) to increase the Unit 20(D) fall moose population to 8,000 - 10,000 moose with a sustainable harvest of 500 - 700 moose per year; and

(ii) to reverse the decline of the Macomb caribou herd and increase the fall population to 600 - 800 caribou with a sustainable harvest of 30 - 50 caribou per year;

(B) if the commissioner or the commissioner's designee conducts a wolf population reduction or a wolf population regulation program, the program must be conducted in the following manner to achieve the objectives in (A) of this paragraph;

(i) for up to five years beginning July 1, 2004, the commissioner may reduce the wolf population in Unit 20(D); however, the commissioner may not reduce the wolf population within the Unit 20(D) wolf predation control area to fewer than 25 percent of the early-winter wolf population before initiation of the program; and

(ii) the commissioner shall reduce the wolf population in an efficient manner, but as safely and humanely as practical;

(C) hunting and trapping of wolves by the public in Unit 20(D) during the term of the program may occur as provided in the hunting and trapping regulations set out elsewhere in this title, including the use of motorized vehicles as provided in 5 AAC 92.080; however, if the wolf population is reduced to 25 percent of the early-winter, pre-control size, the commissioner shall stop all taking of wolves until the wolf population increases;

(D) annually, the department shall, to the extent practicable, provide to the Board of Game at the board's spring board meeting, a report of program activities conducted during the preceding 12 months, including implementation activities, the status of prey and predator populations, and recommendations for changes, if necessary, to achieve the plan's objectives;

(E) justification for the program, and wildlife population and human-use information, is as follows:

(i) consumptive use of moose and caribou has been a priority human use of wildlife in Unit 20(D) for decades; human demand for harvest of these species remains high in Unit 20(D); the board determined the moose population in Unit 20(D) and the Macomb caribou herd are important for providing high levels of human consumptive use; the board established objectives for population size and annual sustained harvest of moose in Unit 20(D) and the Macomb caribou herd consistent with multiple use and principles of sound conservation and management of habitat and all wildlife species in the area; these objectives are to have a moose population of 8,000 - 10,000 with an annual sustainable harvest of 500 - 700 moose and to have 600 - 800 caribou in the Macomb herd with an annual sustainable harvest of 30 - 50 caribou;

(ii) the Unit 20(D) moose population was estimated to be 6,002 - 7,770 moose in fall 2003 based on Geostatistical Population Estimation; the annual harvest from Unit 20(D) has averaged about 204 moose per year for the past five years; both the population size and harvest are well below the management objective levels;

(iii) the moose population in Unit 20(D) is divided into three subpopulations for management purposes: northern Unit 20(D), southeastern Unit 20(D), and southwestern Unit 20(D);

(iv) the northern Unit 20(D) moose population is estimated to be 2,070 - 2,719 moose; moose calf survival to fall was 18 calves to 100 cows in 1999; moose habitat quality is moderate in northern Unit 20(D), with extensive areas of subalpine habitat, lowland habitat associated with several major rivers and creeks, and numerous areas burned by wildfire within the last 1 - 30 years; the resident and nonresident hunting season is September 1 - 15 for any bull; during the last five years, an average of 261 hunters per year killed an average of 67 moose per year;

(v) the southwestern Unit 20(D) moose population is estimated to be 2,655 - 4,689 moose; moose calf survival to fall was 32 calves to 100 cows in 2003; moose habitat quality is good with extensive areas of subalpine habitat, several major wildfires in the 5 - 15 years, and large areas of cleared land that are revegetating with moose browse; the resident hunting season is September 1 - 15 for one bull with spike-fork or 50-inch antlers or antlers with four or more brow tines on at least one side; the nonresident season is September 5 - 15 for one bull with 50-inch antlers or antlers with four or more brow tines on at least one side; the Delta Junction Management Area and the Bison Range Youth Hunt Management Area is hunting by drawing permit within this portion of Unit 20(D); during the last five years, an average of 432 hunters per year killed an average of 118 moose per year;

(vi) the southeastern Unit 20(D) moose population is estimated to be 544 - 1,162 moose; moose calf survival to fall was 24 calves to 100 cows in 2003; moose habitat quality is good with extensive areas of subalpine habitat and lowland habitat along the Tanana River; the resident hunting season is September 1 - 15 for any bull; there is no open season for nonresidents, except within a portion of the Robertson River drainage; the Macomb Plateau Controlled Use Area within this portion of Unit 20(D) restricts motorized access for hunting, and makes moose hunting difficult in much of this area; during the last five years, an average of 47 hunters per year killed an average of 13 moose per year during the general hunting season;

(vii) the Unit 20(D) grizzly bear population can be estimated by extrapolation from bear research data collected in adjacent units; the extrapolated estimate for Unit 20(D) is 181 - 210 total grizzly bears, with 143 - 176 bears older than two years; the grizzly bear estimate for southeastern and southwestern Unit 20(D) combined is 76 - 86 total bears, including 51 - 58 bears older than two years; in northern Unit 20(D), the grizzly bear population is estimated to contain 105 - 124 total bears with 92 - 109 bears older than two years; human-caused grizzly bear mortality has averaged 14 bears per year for the last five years;

(viii) black bears occur throughout Unit 20(D) at low to mid elevation; no estimate of black bear density or population size can be made; both black bears and grizzly bears are known to prey on moose in Unit 20(D), but the extent of predation has not been measured; human-caused black bear mortality has averaged 22 bears per year for the last five years;

(ix) the Macomb caribou herd declined significantly in size from 800 caribou in fall 1990 to 458 in fall 1993; the herd increased to 550 - 575 by fall 2003 with a ratio of 19 calves to 100 cows;

(x) winter weather in Unit 20(D) has been moderate for the past five to eight years;

(xi) extensive research in Alaska and northern Canada demonstrates the potential for naturally regulated wolf and bear populations to regulate moose numbers at densities well below the forage-carrying capacity of the habitat; potential harvest from such moose populations is low; it is likely that the moose population in Unit 20(D) fits this pattern, particularly in northern Unit 20 (D); unless combined wolf and bear predation is reduced, the moose population will not increase to objective levels in spite of mild weather, abundant high quality forage, and restrictive hunter harvest;

(xii) bear regulations have been liberalized in portions of Unit 20(D) for several years; in parts of the unit, grizzly numbers are probably reduced somewhat as a result of hunter harvest and other human-caused mortality; no corresponding increase in moose or caribou numbers or harvestable surplus is evident as a result;

(xiii) the fall 2002 wolf population is estimated to be 88 - 98 based on aerial surveys, incidental observations, sealing records, and interviews with knowledgeable trappers; an average of 38 (41 percent of the population) wolves per year have been taken by hunting and trapping during the past five years; this is below the harvest necessary to result in a population reduction; in addition several packs in northern Unit 20(D) were treated during the Fortymile Nonlethal Predation Control Program and still contain sterilized pairs of wolves;

(xiv) if local hunters and trappers do not achieve adequate wolf reductions, the commissioner may issue public aerial shooting permits or public land and shoot permits as a method of wolf removal under AS 16.05.783 ; if this is unsuccessful in achieving adequate reduction of wolf numbers, the commissioner may implement aerial shooting by the department;

(4) a Fortymile Nonlethal Predation Control Area is established in that portion of Unit 20(B), including the Salcha River drainage upstream from and including the South Fork of the Salcha River, plus the Chena River drainage upstream from Van Curlers bar; that portion of Unit 20(D), including the Goodpaster drainage upstream from and including Central Creek, the entire drainage of the South Fork of the Goodpaster River, the Healy River drainage, and Billy and Sand Creeks; that portion of Unit 20(E), including the Middle Fork and North Fork drainages of the Fortymile River upstream from and including Hutchinson Creek, plus the Mosquito Fork drainage upstream from and including Gold Creek, plus the Seventymile drainage, plus the Mission Creek drainage; the Fortymile Nonlethal Predation Control Area does not include those lands that are part of the Yukon-Charley Rivers National Preserve and the Fortymile Wild and Scenic River corridor; in accordance with 5 AAC 92.110, the commissioner or the commissioner's designee may conduct a wolf population reduction or wolf population regulation program in the Fortymile Nonlethal Predation Control Area consistent with the following program objectives, constraints, and requirements:

(A) the objective of the program is to stimulate recovery of the Fortymile caribou herd to its traditional range and to benefit the people who value the herd and its ecosystem using nonlethal techniques recommended by the Fortymile Caribou Herd Management Team; these nonlethal techniques are to provide conditions for the Fortymile herd to grow at a moderate annual rate of five percent to 10 percent between 1997 and spring 2001 and provide a sustainable harvest of at least two percent of herd size (greater than 560) following the control program;

(B) wolf trapping by the public within the control area is governed by 5 AAC 84.270 and not by this section; however, wolf trapping shall be closed under 5 AAC 92.110 if the wolf population is reduced to less than 30 wolves; to protect fertility controlled wolves, the department shall continue to maintain close contact with local wolf trappers about the location of treated wolves; trappers will be asked to voluntarily avoid trapping wolves in fertility controlled territories; emergency closures will be used only if voluntary compliance is not obtained;

(C) if the commissioner or the commissioner's designee conducts the program, the program must be conducted in the following manner to achieve the objectives in (A) of this paragraph:

(i) for up to four years beginning in October 1997, the commissioner may reduce the wolf population in the Fortymile Nonlethal Predation Control Area; however, the commissioner may not reduce the wolf population within the area to less than 30 wolves in 15 packs and may not implement fertility control or translocate packs that primarily range within the Yukon-Charley Rivers National Preserve; between five and seven packs may be scheduled for nonlethal treatment each year;

(ii) the commissioner may reduce the wolf population using only nonlethal means endorsed by the Fortymile Caribou Herd Management Team as follows: beginning in October 1997, the commissioner may reduce the wolf population in the Fortymile Nonlethal Predation Control Area by translocating and sterilizing wolves to regulate productivity and to minimize immigration of new wolves into the area; if translocation is used, groups of up to five wolves will be moved at least 100 miles to remote sites within the winter ranges of the Nelchina, Porcupine, and Western Arctic caribou herds where human use of caribou is below sustainable levels, or to the Kenai Peninsula to increase genetic diversity of the current, relatively isolated Kenai wolf population; release sites should have prey densities comparable to or greater than prey densities in the Fortymile range; to ensure that sterilization does not interfere with gonadal cycling, males may be vasectomized using either surgical or chemical techniques; females may be tubally ligated if ongoing studies in the Yukon Territory, Canada indicate this is feasible and safe; surgical sterilization shall be performed only by a qualified veterinary surgeon; other techniques proven to more effective and humane may be used after review by the Fortymile Caribou Herd Management Team and approval by the Board of Game;

(D) the department shall, to the extent practicable, provide the Board of Game at each spring meeting, a report of program activities conducted during the preceding 12 months, including implementation activities and population status reports for Fortymile caribou, wolves, grizzly and black bears, moose, and sheep;

(E) based upon the report in (D) of this paragraph, recommendations for program changes, if necessary, shall be made by the Fortymile Caribou Herd Management Team and the department;

(F) wildlife population and human-use information, and justifications for the program are as follows:

(i) the Fortymile Caribou Herd Management Plan (October 1995), incorporated by reference in this paragraph, was developed by a diverse group of state and Yukon Territory, Canada (Yukon) residents and representatives from state, federal, and territorial wildlife managing agencies; the team's goal was to develop management steps acceptable to most residents of this state and the Yukon that would restore the Fortymile Caribou herd to its traditional range thereby benefiting the ecosystem, including residents and visitors to the area;

(ii) traditionally the Fortymile caribou herd has been an important subsistence resource for residents throughout interior Alaska and the western Yukon; the Board of Game determined that the Fortymile caribou herd is important for providing high levels of human consumptive use; the Board of Game established objectives for population size and annual sustained harvest of Fortymile caribou consistent with multiple use, principles of sound conservation and management of habitat and wildlife species in the area, and the intent of the 1995 Fortymile Caribou Herd Management Plan;

(iii) the June 2003 herd estimate was 43,375, a 92 percent increase from the 1995 estimate of 22,558; population trend is increasing at 8 - 10 percent annually; currently, the herd ranges within an area of approximately 19,300 square miles in east central Alaska and in the adjacent Yukon; only a small percentage of the herd moves into the Yukon each year; the Fortymile Caribou herd was estimated to exceed 500,000 caribou during the 1920s and numbered at least 50,000 during the 1950s and early 1960s; traditionally, the herd ranged from Ft. Selkirk, Yukon Territory to west of the Steese Highway; current range use is less than 25 percent of the range use described in the 1920s;

(iv) in 1990, harvest was reduced to below sustainable levels and was not a limiting factor to herd growth; harvests were limited to two percent of the population, up to 450 caribou; the bag limit was set at one bull; during 1990 - 1995, harvest averaged about 1.5 percent of the midsummer herd size; historically, hunter interest in the herd has been high; even during the period of restrictive harvest in the early 1990s, 1,700 to 2,100 people hunted the herd annually; as part of the Fortymile Caribou Herd Management Plan, the harvest quota was further reduced to 150 bulls, including up to 100 during the fall and a minimum of 50 during the winter; hunters were asked to reduce their efforts to harvest Fortymile caribou during the life of the plan; during 1996 - 2000, hunters complied with this request and an average of 778 hunters annually harvested about 0.5 percent of the mid-summer herd population; in 2000, the board endorsed the 2001 - 2006 Fortymile Harvest Management Plan; since 2001, an average of 3,239 hunters annually harvested about 1.8 percent of the mid-summer herd size;

(v) habitat quality and disease are not limiting factors; range condition has been assessed based on the percent of lichens in the herd's winter diet; samples obtained since 1991 indicate the winter range used by the herd is still in excellent condition; in addition, most of the traditional winter range not used since the early 1970s is still available; pregnancy rates (averaging greater than 80 percent annually) indicate the herd is in good nutritional condition; calf weights in October have been relatively high and stable compared with nutritionally stressed herds; blood samples collected from the Fortymile caribou herd indicate there are no infectious diseases present in the herd; land managers and owners within the herd's traditional range have been contacted about maintaining caribou range for the future;

(vi) before removal or sterilization, the 1995 fall wolf population in the Fortymile Nonlethal Predation Control Area was estimated to be 125-135 wolves using radiotelemetry and track surveys; average fall pack size was 6.9, ranging between 4 and 13 wolves; the average annual wolf harvest within the area from winter 1992 - 1993 and winter 1994 - 1995 was 18 wolves (14 percent), well below sustainable levels; during winter 1995 - 1996, the harvest increased to 73 wolves (56 percent), which was high enough to reduce the area's wolf population; in winter 2003 - 2004, 9 of 15 sterilized pairs were still in place and the remaining 6 pack territories had been taken over by new packs averaging 6 - 8 wolves each;

(vii) wolf predation has consistently been a major cause of death among Fortymile caribou; during 1994 through April 1998, wolves caused an average of 49 percent of the annual calf mortality and between May 1991 and April 1998, wolves caused 89 percent of the total adult mortality; during May 1998 through April 2002, wolves caused an average of 39 percent of the annual calf mortality and 74 percent of the total adult mortality;

(viii) grizzly and black bear densities and population trends within most of the Fortymile Nonlethal Predation Control Area have not been affected by harvest; most of this area is difficult to access and historically bear harvest in this area has been well below sustainable levels; from May through April 1998, grizzly and black bears caused an average of 30 and four percent of the annual calf mortality, respectively; from May 1998 through April 2002, grizzly and black bears caused an average of 32 and seven percent of the annual calf mortality, respectively;

(ix) wolves and grizzly bears were major factors limiting the Fortymile caribou herd to a relatively low, stable population during 1990-1996, compared with annual growth rates of 7-10 percent in the 1980s when environmental conditions were favorable and predation rates were lower; the herd's potential to grow is indicated by past herd estimates numbering in the hundreds of thousands; range quality and quantity, herd condition and productivity, and human harvest are not major factors limiting herd growth; the most significant factor limiting herd growth was predation on calves; without increasing caribou calf survival, the herd was predicted to remain stable during most years and show only low to moderate growth during years of favorable weather; under pretreatment management, herd recovery to traditional ranges in interior Alaska and the western Yukon, was expected to be slow; by temporarily reducing predation, the herd growth was expected to be a minimum of 5-10 percent except during years of unfavorable weather conditions; between 1997 and 2003 when control implementation activities were conducted, herd growth averaged 8 - 10 percent annually;

(x) reducing a wolf population by 69-85 percent has resulted in 16-17 percent average annual increases in the caribou numbers in central Alaska and the east central Yukon; the Fortymile Caribou Herd Management Team recommended nonlethal techniques including wolf fertility control and wolf translocation as well as legal public wolf trapping to reach this level of reduction; each management step is designed with a specific purpose; trapping is acknowledged to potentially reduce the size of the packs within the control area so that nonlethal techniques are more economically and logistically feasible, translocation of subordinate wolves may be necessary to reduce the pack to the alpha breeding pair; fertility control is necessary to maintain the wolf population at a low level and to keep new wolves from colonizing the area;

(xi) the Fortymile Caribou Herd Management Team requested that criteria be adopted for early termination of the implementation plan if nonlethal control appears ineffective; the following criteria were agreed to by the team: if the herd failed to grow 10 percent between June 1998 and June 2000, and the wolves killed more than 3,500 caribou each year during 1998 and 1999, then the program would be terminated; between June 1998 and June 2000 the herd grew by 12 percent;

(xii) the Fortymile Caribou Herd Management Team reemphasized that the conservation of caribou habitat should take priority over conflicting uses that jeopardize the herd recovery;

(5) a Unit 13 wolf predation control area is established and consists of all lands within Units 13(A), 13(B), 13(C), and that portion of Unit 13(E) east of the Alaska Railroad, except federal lands; in accordance with 5 AAC 92.110, the commissioner or the commissioner's designee may conduct a wolf population reduction or wolf population regulation program in the wolf predation control area consistent with the following program objectives, constraints, and requirements:

(A) the objectives of the program are to stop the decline of the moose population within the wolf predation control area and to maintain the following objectives during fall composition surveys:

Unit Objectives Present (Fall 2004)

13(A) 1.0 cows per square mile 0.8 cows per square mile

/25 calves per 100 cows /22 calves per 100 cows

13(B) 1.2 cows per square mile 0.8 cows per square mile

/30 calves per 100 cows /23 calves per 100 cows

13(C) 1.5 cows per square mile 0.7 cows per square mile

/30 calves per 100 cows /10 calves per 100 cows

13(E) 0.9 cows per square mile 0.6 cows per square mile

/30 calves per 100 cows /24 calves per 100 cows

(B) when the commissioner or the commissioner's designee conducts a wolf population reduction or wolf population regulation program, the program may only be conducted in the following manner to achieve the objectives of (A) of this paragraph:

(i) for a five-year period beginning July 1, 2000, and, following readoption, for a second five-year period beginning July 1, 2005, the commissioner may reduce the number of wolves in the wolf predation control area; however, the commissioner may not reduce the late-winter population of Unit 13 to less than 135 wolves;

(ii) the commissioner may only reduce the wolf population in an efficient manner, but as safely and humanely as practical;

(iii) the commissioner may issue public aerial shooting permits or public land-and-shoot permits as a method of wolf removal;

(C) hunting and trapping of wolves by the public in the wolf predation control area during the term of the program may occur as provided in the hunting and trapping regulations set out elsewhere in this title, including use of motorized vehicles as provided for in 5 AAC 92.080; however wolf hunting and trapping will be closed by emergency order if the population is reduced below the objectives specified in (B)(i) of this paragraph;

(D) annually, the department is requested to provide to the Board of Game, at its spring meeting, a report of program activities conducted during the preceding 12 months, including implementation activities, the status of prey and predator populations, and recommendations for changes, if necessary, to achieve the plan's objective;

(E) justification for the program, and wildlife population and human-use information, is as follows:

(i) high levels of consumptive use of moose and caribou have been a priority human use of wildlife in Unit 13 for decades; human demand for harvest of these species remains high and is reflected in management goals for the unit; more than 6,000 hunters pursue moose in Unit 13 and 8,000 people received Tier II caribou permits in 1999; in 2004, only 2,000 Tier II permits for caribou were issued and 3,000 moose hunters participated in the moose hunts;

(ii) habitat does not appear to be the primary limiting factor for moose populations now, and is not expected to limit moose populations at proposed objectives; although wolves and grizzly bears are significant sources of mortality for moose, wolf predation occurs year-round while grizzly bears prey primarily on calves in the spring; black bears in this area are an insignificant source of mortality; harvest of predators by humans is necessary to achieve moose management objectives;

(iii) a reduction in wolf numbers is necessary to enhance survival of prey species, halt population declines and achieve population objectives in the wolf predation control area; during the 1970s and 1980s, same-day-airborne hunting of wolves by the public, at little or no cost to the department, effectively kept the wolf population at levels well below present levels, and ungulate populations prospered; the department's current spring population objective in the unit is 135 wolves; the projected Spring 2005 population for Unit 13 is 225 wolves;

(iv) bans on same-day-airborne hunting of wolves in 1987 and again in 1996, increased the wolf population in Unit 13 and decreased the moose population, despite favorable winter weather; with poor calf recruitment and high wolf numbers, the decline in the moose population cannot be expected to stop without a reduction in wolf predation;

(6) a mainland Unit 16(B) wolf predation control area is established and consists of all non-federal lands within the mainland portion of Unit 16(B), in accordance with 5 AAC 92.110; the commissioner or the commissioner's designee may conduct a wolf population reduction or wolf population regulation program in the wolf predation control area consistent with the following program objectives, constraints, and requirements:

(A) justification for the program, and wildlife population and human-use information, is as follows:

(i) the Board of Game determined the moose population in mainland Unit 16(B) is important for providing high levels of human consumptive use; the board established objectives for population size and annual sustained harvest of moose in mainland Unit 16(B) consistent with multiple use and principles of sound conservation and management of habitat and all wildlife species in the area; the objectives of the program are to halt the decline of the moose population within the wolf predation control area and to increase the fall (post-hunt) population to the intensive management objective of 6,500 - 7,500 moose providing a sustainable annual harvest of 310 - 600 moose;

(ii) high levels of consumptive use of moose has been a priority human use of wildlife in mainland Unit 16(B) for at least 40 years; human demand for harvest of moose remains high and is reflected in management objectives for this unit; during the years 1995 - 2000, more than 700 hunters annually pursued moose in this unit and harvested an average of 187 bulls; each year, 260 of over 1,100 applicants received any-bull Tier II permits and harvested an additional 81 moose (n = 28 - 103); during the 1980s (1983 - 88) an average of 1,315 hunters reported harvesting 485 moose annually;

(iii) the mainland Unit 16(B) moose population was estimated in fall 2001 to be 3,423 - 4,321 moose, based on aerial surveys from within the unit; moose calf survival was estimated during fall composition surveys of between 10 - 14 calves per 100 cows; the current population size is below the intensive management objective;

(iv) harvest of predators by humans is necessary to achieve moose management objectives; wolves, black bears, and brown bears each are significant sources of mortality for moose; wolf predation occurs year-round, while black and brown bears prey primarily on calves in the spring;

(v) winter snow depth has been considered severe in portions of the unit in 13 of the past 18 years; frequent deep-snow winters have likely contributed to low calf production and over-winter survival; declines in moose productivity and winter survival initiated by weather may be accelerated by wolf predation; deep snow increases wolf predation on adult moose; deep snow persisting to spring may increase brown bear predation on moose;

(vi) the decline in the mainland Unit 16(B) moose population can be attributed to poor calf survival, high adult mortality, and the inability of the population to recover from the impacts of frequent deep snow winters; unless wolf and bear predation is reduced, the moose population will not increase to objective levels in spite of mild weather, adequate preferred forage, and restriction on hunter harvest; a reduction in wolf numbers, in conjunction with a reduction in bear numbers through liberalized bear hunting opportunities, is necessary to halt the moose population decline and to achieve population objectives; no reasonable alternative to a temporary reduction in wolf and bear numbers exists if the management objectives are to be achieved in a timely manner;

(vii) a reduction in wolf numbers, in conjunction with a reduction in bear numbers through liberalized bear hunting opportunities, are necessary to enhance survival of mainland Unit 16(B) moose, to halt the population decline, and to achieve population objectives in the wolf predation control area; during the 1970s and 1980s, same-day-airborne hunting of wolves by the public, at little or no cost to the department, effectively kept the wolf population at levels well below present levels, and moose populations were increasing or stable; trapper and hunter harvests in the last 10 years has averaged less than 2.5 wolves per trapper and hunter; the current spring population objective in the control area is 22 - 45 wolves in 3 - 5 packs; the projected spring 2003 population for mainland Unit 16(B) is 100 - 160 wolves in 16 or more packs, and the projected fall 2003 pre-hunt population is 160 - 220 wolves;

(B) the geographical area is described as the mainland portion of Game Management Unit 16(B);

(i) the moose population in mainland Unit 16(B) is composed of subpopulations that reside wholly in the unit; however, a subpopulation from the flanks of Mount Yenlo and in the upper Lake Creek drainage mixes in winter with moose from Unit 16(A) in the Kahiltna River drainage, and a subpopulation from the flanks of Mount Susitna and the drainages of Alexander Creek and Lower Yentna River winters with moose from Units 14(A), 14(B), and 16(A) in the lower Yentna and Susitna rivers; all subpopulations are accessible by hunters at varying levels; the greatest access is during the winter hunting season;

(ii) habitat does not appear to be a significant factor in calf survival, or limiting the moose population, and is not expected to limit the moose population at objective levels; while the majority of the unit is covered with mature forests, moose habitat has changed little since the high moose densities of the early 1980s; prescribed burning has been the only economically viable option for improving moose habitat and opportunities to conduct controlled burns are limited by climate, access, and privately owned lands with structures dispersed throughout the unit;

(iii) black and brown bears occur throughout mainland Unit 16(B); during the early 1990s, the black bear population size was estimated at 1,300 - 1,700 bears, and the brown bear population in mainland Unit 16(B) was estimated at 530 - 1,050 bears; since then, anecdotal evidence suggests the brown bear population has been stable or has increased, while the black bear population has remained stable or has decreased; black and brown bears are known to prey on moose, but the extent of predation in this unit has not been measured; it is unlikely that bear harvest by hunters will be high enough to result in the moose population reaching population objectives;

(iv) beginning in fall 2001, the annual allowable moose harvest fell below the amount necessary to provide subsistence harvest levels established by the board for mainland Unit 16(B); all general season hunting was eliminated and hunting opportunity became limited to Tier II resident permittees; during 1996 - 2000, the annual harvest averaged 283 moose per year (range 242 - 318), including moose taken by Tier II subsistence permit; in 2001, a Tier II hunt harvested 120 moose; current harvest levels are below the intensive management objective;

(D) the wolf population in mainland Unit 16(B) for fall 2002 was estimated to be 140 - 200 wolves, based on aerial surveys, incidental pilot observations, sealing records, and interviews with knowledgeable trappers; harvest by hunters and trappers has increased annually from 15 in 1997 - 98 to a record 58 in 2001 - 02; available moose and wolf population estimates suggest the fall 2001 moose-to-wolf ratio could be as low as 17:1; at this ratio wolves, a relatively high bear density, and frequent deep snow winters combined are expected to continue to depress moose numbers;

(E) when the commissioner, or the commissioner's designee, conducts a wolf population reduction or wolf population regulation program, the program shall be conducted in the following manner to achieve the objectives in (A) of this paragraph:

(i) the commissioner may reduce the number of wolves in the wolf predation control area; however, the commissioner may not reduce the late-winter population in Unit 16(B) to less than 20 wolves;

(ii) the commissioner shall reduce the wolf population in an efficient manner, but as safely and humanely as practical;

(iii) the commissioner may issue public aerial shooting permits or public land-and-shoot permits as a method of wolf removal;

(iv) hunting and trapping of wolves by the public in the wolf predation control area during the term of the program may occur as provided in the hunting and trapping regulations set out elsewhere in this title, including use of motorized vehicles as provided for in 5 AAC 92.080;

(F) annually, the department shall provide to the Board of Game, at its spring meeting, a report of program activities conducted during the preceding 12 months, including implementation activities, the status of prey and predator populations, and recommendations for changes, if necessary, to achieve the plan's objective;

(G) the provisions of the wolf predation control program in this paragraph do not apply after June 30, 2008;

(7) a Central Kuskokwim wolf predation control area is established and consists of Units 19(A) and 19(B); this predator control program does not apply to any National Park Service or National Wildlife Refuge lands not approved by the federal agencies; in accordance with 5 AAC 92.110, the commissioner or the commissioner's designee may conduct a wolf population reduction or wolf population regulation program in Units 19(A) and 19(B) wolf predation control area consistent with the following objectives, constraints, and requirements:

(A) the objective of the program is to initiate and increase toward the intensive management moose population objective of 13,500 - 16,500 moose with a sustainable annual harvest of 750 - 950 moose; progress towards increasing the moose population and sustainable harvest shall be evaluated every two years or no later than before the expiration of this wolf predation control program and a recommendation shall be made, to the extent practicable, to the Board of Game concerning the need for continuation of the program;

(i) for up to five years beginning July 1, 2004, the commissioner may reduce the wolf population in Unit 19(A) and 19(B); however, the commissioner may not reduce the wolf population within the area to fewer than 50 wolves;

(ii) the commissioner shall reduce the wolf population in an efficient manner, by any means, but as safely and humanely as practical;

(iii) the commissioner may issue public aerial shooting permits or public land and shoot permits as a method of wolf removal pursuant to AS 16.05.783 ;

(C) hunting and trapping of wolves by the public in Unit 19(A) and 19(B) during the term of the program may occur as provided in the hunting and trapping regulations set out elsewhere in this title, including the use of motorized vehicles as provided for in 5 AAC 92.080; however, if the wolf population is reduced to 50 wolves, the commissioner shall stop all taking of wolves until the wolf population increases;

(D) annually, the department shall to the extent practicable, provide to the board at the board's spring board meeting, a report of program activities conducted during the preceding 12 months, including implementation activities, the status of moose, caribou, black bear, brown bear, and wolf populations, and recommendations for changes, if necessary, to achieve the plan's objective;

(E) justification for the program, and wildlife population and human-use information, is as follows:

(i) the board determined the moose population in Unit 19(A) and 19(B) is important for providing high levels of human consumptive use; the board established objectives for population size and annual sustained harvest of moose in Unit 19(A) and 19(B) consistent with multiple use and principles of sound conservation and management of habitat and all wildlife species in the area;

(ii) the wolf predation control area is established as part of the overall program to rebuild the moose population in Units 19(A) and 19(B) recommended in the Central Kuskokwim Moose Management Plan (CKMMP); the mission of the CKMMP is to restore and maintain the central Kuskokwim moose population to ensure reasonable subsistence opportunities, provide for high levels of human consumptive use, provide for a diversity of other uses of the moose resource, manage predators and moose habitat, and maintain the overall health of the ecosystem;

(iii) the Central Kuskokwim Moose Management Planning Committee (CKMC) considered many alternatives to rebuild the moose population in Units 19(A) and (B), including reducing moose harvest, habitat improvement, reducing wolf predation through wolf hunting and trapping seasons and bag limits and reducing black bear and grizzly bear predation; the CKMMP includes recommendations involving moose harvest reductions, habitat management, wolf predation control, brown bear and black bear hunting, public education needs, and acquisition of additional biological data; the CKMC also consider alternative methods of wolf predation control in addition to issuing permits to the public for aerial shooting or land and shoot wolf removal; ground based trapping is not likely to achieve the desired reduction in wolf numbers due to the remoteness of the region and the limited number of trappers relative to the size of the area;

(iv) the department has conducted two moose density estimates within Units 19(A) and 19(B) since 1998; one estimate was in late March 1998 in Unit 19(A) within a portion of the Holitna Drainage; the estimated density was 1.25 (plus or minus 14 percent at an 80 percent confidence interval) moose per square mile; this yielded a population estimate of 2,183 (plus or minus 314) moose; the second density estimate was completed in March 2001, in the Aniak River drainage in Unit 19(A); the area covered was 1,731 square miles and the estimated density was 0.70 (plus or minus 17 percent at an 80 percent confidence interval) moose per square mile; the resulting population estimate was 1,200 moose (plus or minus 204); using those two surveys and extrapolating to the rest of the units we currently estimate the entire Units 19(A) and 19(B) moose population of 6,800 - 11,300 moose (0.38 - 0.63 moose per square mile);

(v) moose hunting seasons and bag limits have been reduced in Units 19(A) and 19(B); the nonresident season in Unit 19(A) has been closed; resident hunters in Unit 19(A) will be required to have a registration permit; the resident season in Unit 19(B) has been reduced by five days and the nonresident season in Unit 19(B) has been reduced by 10 days; resident hunters with general harvest tickets in Unit 19(B) are restricted to spike-fork bulls or bulls with 50-inch antlers or antlers with four or more brow tines on one side; resident hunters in Unit 19(B) must possess a registration permit to shoot any antlered bull; nonresident hunters are restricted from hunting within two miles on either side of major tributaries of the Kuskokwim River in portions of Unit 19(B) and may only take bulls with 50-inch antlers or antlers with four or more brow tines on one side; the resident winter moose hunting seasons in Unit 19(A) have been eliminated to reduce overall harvest and eliminate incidental cow harvest to improve the reproduction potential of the population; the overall reported number of moose taken in Unit 19(A) has declined by over 60 percent from 168 in 1994 - 1995 to 67 during 2002 - 2003; overall reported harvest in Unit 19(B) has decreased from 163 in 1994 - 1995 to 81 taken in 2002 - 2003;

(vi) the estimated moose population an harvest levels in Units 19(A) and 19(B), including unreported harvest, are well below the intensive management population and harvest objectives established for the units;

(vii) habitat quality in Units 19(A) and 19(B) is not currently believed to be a significant factor limiting the moose population; wildfires are common and fire suppression efforts are limited; all indications are that habitat in this area is capable of sustaining the higher densities need to meet the intensive management objectives; effort to increase moose populations through habitat manipulation would likely be of little value;

(viii) black and brown bear densities have not been estimated in Units 19(A) and 19(B), but based on observations of local residents and anecdotal information are thought to be moderate to high; research from Unit 19(D)-East suggests that black and brown bear predation is likely a factor that contributes to limiting the moose population in Units 19(A) and 19(B);

(ix) the wolf population in Units 19(A) and 19(B) was estimated using an extrapolation technique combined with anecdotal observation; the population in the 18,000 square mile entire area is estimated at 340 - 455 wolves in 45 - 53 packs; that is approximately 1.9 - 2.5 wolves per 100 square miles; wolves are believed to be major limiting factor for moose;

(x) available moose and wolf population estimates suggest the current moose-to-wolf ratio is between 15:1 and 33:1; if the moose population has decreased since the 2001 survey, moose-to-wolf ratios could be lower; with the influence of the Mulchatna caribou herd and other prey in Units 19(A) and 19(B), wolf predation rates on resident moose are high; moose can be expected to persist at low densities with little expectation of increase, unless moose calf and adult survival increase;

(xi) hunting and trapping of wolves in the area have not exceeded sustainable levels; the department can continue trapper education efforts in local villages, but previous trapper education programs in the area had little effect on wolf harvest; a regulation adopted in 2002 to allow wolves to be taken with the use of snowmachines has not significantly increased wolf harvest; economic factors are a major obstacle to reducing wolf numbers through hunting and trapping; if the wolf population is to be reduced to achieve prey population objectives, measures beyond normal hunting and trapping will have to be employed;

(8) an Upper Yukon/Tanana wolf and brown bear predation control area is established and consists of all of Units 12 (approximately 10,000 square miles) and 20(E) (approximately 10,680 square miles); this predator control program does not apply to any National Park Service or National Wildlife Refuge lands not approved by the federal agencies; in accordance with 5 AAC 92.110 and 5 AAC 92.115, the commissioner or the commissioner's designee may conduct a wolf and brown bear population reduction or population regulation program in the Upper Yukon/Tanana wolf and brown bear predation control area consistent with the following control objectives, constraints, and requirements:

(A) the objective of the program is to initiate an increase toward the intensive management moose population objectives of 4,000 - 6,000 moose with a sustainable annual harvest of 250 - 450 in Unit 12, and 8,000 - 10,000 moose with a sustainable annual harvest of 500 - 1,000 in the Fortymile and Ladue River drainages of Unit 20(E);

(B) when the commissioner or the commissioner's designee conducts a wolf and brown bear population reduction or population regulation program, the program must be conducted in the following manner to achieve the objectives in (A) of this paragraph:

(i) for up to five years beginning January 1, 2005, the commissioner may reduce the wolf and brown bear population in Units 12 and 20(E); however, the commissioner may not reduce the Unit 12 wolf population to fewer than 50 wolves, the Unit 20(E) wolf population to fewer than 60 wolves, or the Unit 12 or Unit 20(E) brown bear populations by more than 25 percent of the pre-control estimated total brown bear population; brown bear population estimates are based on extrapolations from past research in Unit 20(E) and similar habitats with similar bear food resources in Unit 20(A);

(ii) initially, the commissioner may focus bear control efforts in approximately 3,200 square miles or less of the control area; however, the commissioner may not reduce the number of bears in the focus area by more than 60 percent of the pre-control extrapolated estimate; estimates are based on extrapolations from past research in Unit 20(E) and similar habitats with similar bear food resources in Unit 20(A); after periodic evaluation of the efficacy of the program the Board of Game may modify in board findings the size or location of the focus area or add additional areas;

(iii) the commissioner shall reduce the wolf and bear populations in an efficient manner, but as safely and humanely as practical;

(iv) the commissioner may issue public aerial shooting permits or public land and shoot permits as a method of wolf removal under AS 16.05.783 ;

(v) the commissioner shall reduce the bear population by means and direction included in the Board of Game Bear Conservation and Management Policy (2004-147-BOG), dated March 8, 2004 and incorporated by reference;

(C) taking of wolves and brown bears in Unit 12 and Unit 20(E) during the term of the program may occur as provided in hunting regulations set out elsewhere in this title, including the use of motorized vehicles as provided in 5 AAC 92.080; however, if the wolf population is reduced to 50 in Unit 12, or 60 in Unit 20(E), the commissioner shall stop all taking of wolves in that unit until the wolf population increases, or if the brown bear population is reduced by more than 25 percent of the pre-control estimated populations within Unit 12 or Unit 20E, the commissioner shall stop all taking of brown bears in that unit until an assessment is completed of the program's effectiveness in providing a reasonable increase in moose survival and in minimizing the long-term effects on the bear population and the potential for its recovery;

(D) annually, the department shall provide to the Board of Game, at its spring meeting, a report on program activities conducted during the preceding 12 months, including implementation activities, the status of prey and predator populations, program effectiveness, and recommendations for changes to and continuation of the program;

(E) justification for the program, and wildlife population and human-use information, is as follows:

(i) the board determined that the moose populations in Unit 12 and portions of Unit 20(E) are important for providing high levels of human consumptive use; the board established objectives for population size and annual sustained harvest of moose in Unit 12 and Unit 20(E) consistent with multiple uses and principles of sound conservation and management of habitat and all wildlife species in the area;

(ii) the wolf and brown bear predation control area is established as an effort to increase the moose populations in Units 12 and 20(E);

(iii) during 1981 - 2003, the department conducted nine moose density estimation surveys within Unit 12 and 10 moose density estimation surveys within Unit 20(E); based on the surveys conducted in 2003, the population estimate for Unit 12 was 2,900 - 5,100 moose (plus or minus 22 percent at 90 percent confidence interval), or 0.5 - 0.9 moose per square mile of suitable moose habitat (6,000 square miles); population estimates for various portions of Unit 20(E) indicate a 2003 population size estimate of 4,000 - 4,800 for the entire unit, or 0.5 - 0.6 moose per square mile of suitable moose habitat (8,000 square miles);

(iv) high moose densities in Unit 12 and Unit 20(E) supported a long hunting season and a bag limit of one moose during the 1960s; as declines began in the early 1970s, hunting for cows was closed; hunting seasons in both units were shortened in 1973 and closed in Unit 20(E) during 1977 - 1981; for both units a ten-day bulls-only season was held during 1982 - 1990, and lengthened to 15 days, including antler restrictions during 1991 - 2004, with up to an additional 30 days in limited portions of the units;

(v) for residents, in 2004, in a portion of Unit 12 drained by the Little Tok River, the moose hunting season is open for five days in August and 10 days in September for one bull with antler restrictions; for a portion of southeast Unit 12, the hunting season is open for the month of September for one bull with antler restrictions; for the remainder of Unit 12, the hunting season is open for five days in August and 10 days in September for one bull; for residents, in 2004, in the portion of Unit 20(E) draining into the Middle Fork of the Fortymile River upstream from and including the Joseph Creek drainage the hunting season is open for five days in August and 10 days in September with a bag limit of one bull; in the remainder of Unit 20(E), for residents, the hunting season is open for five days in August and 10 days in September by registration permit with the stipulation that a registration permit for caribou in Unit 20(E) may not be held at the same time, and, during the month of November, by drawing hunt, all with a bag limit of one bull; for non-residents in both Units 12 and 20(E), only September hunting seasons are open with the same registration permit requirements as for residents with a bag limit of one bull with antler restrictions; no drawing permits are available for nonresidents;

(vi) reported moose harvest in Unit 12 ranged from means of 175 in the mid-1960s, to 157 in the early 1970s, and to 127 during 1999 - 2003; in Unit 20(E), reported harvest ranged from means of 120 in the mid-1960s, to 93 in the early 1970s, and to 148 during 1999 - 2003;

(vii) habitat availability or quality for moose in Unit 12 and Unit 20(E) are not currently primary limiting factors; all indications are that moose habitat in this area is capable of sustaining 1.0 - 1.5 moose per square mile; wildfires are common and fire suppression efforts are limited; over 1,600 square miles of habitat in Unit 20(E) were burned in 2004 alone, which may benefit future moose productivity and recruitment;

(viii) in a 1984 study conducted in central Unit 20(E), where wolves had been reduced during a predator control program prior to the study, wolves killed 12 - 15 percent of moose calves that were born, grizzly bears killed 52 percent and black bears killed three percent; most grizzly bear predation occurred during the six weeks following calving, while wolf predation on all sex and age classes occurred throughout the year; mean early winter ratios of 22 calves to 100 cows, observed during aerial surveys in 1981 - 1988, suggests brown bear predation was important; there has been little change in this pattern since 1988, indicating that brown bear predation remains a major factor in maintaining early winter ratios of 10 - 27 calves to 100 cows during 1997 - 2003 in Unit 20(E); in most portions of Unit 12, observed early winter ratios during the same period were 15 - 41 calves to 100 cows, indicating bear predation was less important than in Unit 20(E);

(ix) since 1980, the early-winter wolf population in Units 12 and 20(E) has been estimated using extrapolation of density estimates derived from data collected during intensive winter aerial surveys, information from interviews with local trappers and trapping records; the early-winter wolf population size estimates for 2002 - 2003 were 181 - 194 wolves in Unit 12 and 245 - 260 in Unit 20(E); the increasing numbers of caribou in the Fortymile herd and the winter migration of the Nelchina herd through Units 12 and 20(E) during the past five years appear to have allowed the wolf population in northern Unit 12 and Unit 20(E) to increase in recent years; wolf densities in northern and western Unit 20(E) are expected to further increase as packs sterilized under the Fortymile non-lethal wolf control program are replaced by unsterilized packs; due to the migratory patterns of these caribou herds, caribou are absent from much of Unit 12 and the southern portion of Unit 20(E) for most of the year, resulting in higher wolf predation rates on moose during periods when caribou are absent; if the wolf population in Unit 20(E) increases as expected and moose numbers remain stable or decline, additional wolf predation would likely continue to depress the moose population; moose can be expected to persist at low densities with little expectation of increase, unless predation is reduced; in Unit 20(E), the impacts of brown bear predation on adult moose is likely low to moderate, and the impact of black bear predation on moose is relatively inconsequential; in Unit 12, the impact of black bear predation on moose is likely low to moderate;

(x) brown bear population size estimates in 2002 were 350 - 425 bears in Unit 12 and 475 - 550 in Unit 20(E), based on extrapolation of density estimates obtained in Unit 20(E) during 1986 and intensive research studies conducted 100 miles to the west in Unit 20(A) during 1981 - 1998; black bear density has not been estimated in either Unit 12 or Unit 20(E);

(xi) brown bear hunting seasons are longer and less restrictive than during the 1970s when the bear population was lightly harvested; in Unit 12, the $25 tag fee requirement was waived during 1984 and 1985, but has been in effect since; bag limit was one bear every four years from the 1960s - 1984 and 1990 - 1991, and one bear per year in 1984 - 1990, and in 1992 - 2004; in Unit 20(E), the $25 tag fee requirement was waived from 1984 - 1992, and excluding the portion of Unit 20(E) in the Yukon-Charlie Rivers National Preserve, from 2002 - 2004; the bag limit was increased to one bear per year in 1982 - 2003 and to two bears per year in 2004;

(xii) brown bear harvest in Unit 12 varied from a mean of 17 during 1966 - 1981, to 22 during 1982 - 1988, and to 18 during 1989 - 2002; in Unit 20(E), harvest varied from a mean of three during 1966 - 1981, to 19 during 1982 - 1988, and to 14 during 1989 - 2002;

(xiii) since 1971, harvest of bears in portions of Unit 12 may have resulted in reductions of brown bear numbers and maintenance at a reduced population size; in combination with a large fire and heavy trapping pressure on wolves, this may have resulted in improved calf survival;

(xiv) hunting and trapping of wolves in the area has not exceeded sustainable levels; economic factors are a major obstacle to reducing wolf numbers through hunting and trapping; if the wolf population is to be reduced to achieve prey population objectives, measures beyond normal hunting and trapping will have to be employed;

(xv) in Unit 20(E), longer, less restrictive brown bear hunting seasons and bag limits since 1982 have not resulted in harvest sufficient to reduce bear numbers, and moose calf survival remains low; a bag limit of two bears per year was adopted in 2004, but its potential to reduce the bear population is in question; if the bear population is to be reduced to achieve prey population objectives, other measures beyond increasing the bag limit and season length, as described in the Board of Game Bear Conservation and Management Policy, will have to be employed.

History: Eff. 10/1/93, Register 127; am 8/18/95, Register 135; am 7/1/96, Register 138; add'l am 7/1/96, Register 138; am 7/27/97, Register 143; am 2/22/2000, Register 153; am 7/1/2000, Register 154; am 7/19/2000, Register 155; am 1/3/2001, Register 156; am 7/1/2001, Register 158; am 8/22/2001, Register 159; am 7/26/2003, Register 167; am 7/1/2004, Register 170; am 1/1/2005, Register 172; am 7/1/2005, Register 174

Authority: AS 16.05.255

AS 16.05.270

AS 16.05.783

Editor's note: A copy of the Fortymile Caribou Herd Management Plan (October 1995) incorporated by reference in 5 AAC 92.125(4) is available by writing to the Division of Wildlife Conservation, P.O. Box 25526, Juneau, AK 99802-5526, or is available for inspection at the Lieutenant Governor's Office in Juneau.

A copy of the Board of Game Bear Conservation and Management Policy (2004-147-BOG) incorporated by reference in 5 AAC 92.125(8) (B)(v) may be obtained by writing to Department of Fish and Game, Board Support Section, P.O. Box 25526, Juneau, AK 99802-5526.

Predation control implementation plans are established in the following areas:

(1) Repealed 1/26/2006;